Publications
A curated list of academic and policy papers underlying VoxVN columns.
-
Fiscal Consolidation and Growth in Middle-Income Southeast Asia
Journal of Asian Economics (working paper series) · 2025
View paper →Abstract
This paper examines the growth effects of fiscal consolidation episodes across middle-income Southeast Asian economies between 2000 and 2023, with a dedicated case study on Viet Nam. It finds that the composition of consolidation, rather than its size, is the dominant predictor of subsequent growth outcomes, and that revenue-based adjustments carry a smaller output cost than commonly assumed once public investment is held constant.
-
Informality and Earnings Recovery After Aggregate Shocks: Evidence from Viet Nam
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper · 2024
View paper →Abstract
Using panel microdata from the Labour Force Survey, this paper traces earnings trajectories of formal and informal workers following the COVID-19 shock. It documents a persistent earnings gap that opens between formal and informal workers immediately after the shock and does not close within the three-year observation window, with the gap concentrated among workers who exit and re-enter the labor force.